Washington wants to kill 18 dairy standards. we give it 10 percent
Washington is moving on what milk and cheese cost. Foodie Forecast puts the odds of it becoming law at 10 percent, and here is what changes either way
By Foodie Pundit Newsroom - Published - Updated - Section: Policy Regulation
Key points
- We give this rule a 10 percent shot at becoming law, low confidence.
- It mainly hits what milk and cheese cost.
- If it passes, deli & bagels price in new york lands near 23 dollars inside 12 months.
- You will feel it first in New York, NY, Seattle, WA, Austin, TX.
Somebody in Washington is trying to change what milk and cheese cost, and almost nobody is going to tell you about it until the price already moved. So here it is early.
We give it a 10 percent shot at actually becoming law. That means our call is that it dies, and we are openly unsure, so treat it as a live coin.
Where it stands today, introduced. The last thing anyone did with it was proposed rule, back on July 17, 2025.
Here is the part most coverage skips. A bill is not interesting because a politician filed it. It is interesting because of what it does to the price of a sandwich, the paycheck of the person who made it, or whether the place that sold it to you is still open next year. That is the only reason this desk reads legislation at all. What it actually does
In normal words, proposal to revoke 18 standards of identity for dairy products. The filing itself puts it this way, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA or we) is proposing to revoke 18 standards of identity for dairy products. FDA is taking this action as we tentatively conclude that these standards are no longer necessary to promote honesty and fair dealing in the interest of consumers.
The short version is that it touches dairy. Those are the categories where a rule change stops being paperwork and shows up on a menu, a shelf tag or a pay stub.
It is being carried by Health and Human Services Department. It went on the record July 17, 2025. Why the number is the number
The 10 percent is not a vibe. It starts from how often bills sitting at this exact point actually finish, then moves up or down on things that are already public. Right now nothing on the record helps it, and 1 thing is working against it.
- Where it sits, introduced (starting point). Bills sitting at this stage start from a 14 percent baseline.
- 412 days with no advance (helps it die). Sitting still this long at an early stage is the usual shape of a bill that quietly dies.
We do not publish the math behind the weighting, and we are not going to. What we do publish is every single input, so you can argue with the reasoning instead of taking a number on faith. If it passes, here is your new normal
- Deli & Bagels price in New York lands near 23 dollars within 12 months, somewhere between 22.7 and 23.7. If it passes, the modeled 12-month move on Deli & Bagels price in New York runs +0.8 to +5.2 percent, centered near +2.4 percent.
- Where the industry lands. The companies with the biggest compliance teams absorb it easiest, which is the quiet part. If it dies, you still pay for that
- Deli & Bagels price in New York stays around 22.5 dollars. If it dies, Deli & Bagels price in New York keeps running on its current trend with no policy shock attached.
- Where the industry lands. The status quo holds, and the lobbying spend that protected it stays worth every dollar.
Every number up there is a range built on a real measured starting value we already hold, and that starting value travels with the forecast. A range is not a promise. It is the honest width of what the evidence supports. Who actually feels it
Reach on this one reads statewide, and prices lean up. The people holding the bag are you, at the register, the grocery aisle, the giant companies sitting upstream of both.
Scored out of 100, exposure looks like 56 for regular people, 48 for restaurants, 72 for grocery, 70 for the industry behind it. Higher means more of the change gets handed to that group instead of quietly absorbed somewhere else.
The pattern worth memorizing, the biggest chains have compliance staff who can swallow a new rule in a week. The taco spot with one location does not. So a rule that reads perfectly neutral on paper usually lands as a small-business story in real life, and then as a menu price story for you. Where you will notice it first
Nationally, these are the food scenes with the most on the line, and each one carries this forecast on its Foodie Page next to its real menu prices.
- New York, NY. 3309 mapped tables in the affected jurisdiction, 36 cuisines on the page.
- Seattle, WA. 3217 mapped tables in the affected jurisdiction, 34 cuisines on the page.
- Austin, TX. 2755 mapped tables in the affected jurisdiction, 35 cuisines on the page.
- Portland, OR. 2360 mapped tables in the affected jurisdiction, 35 cuisines on the page.
- Washington, DC. 2239 mapped tables in the affected jurisdiction, 34 cuisines on the page.
- Los Angeles, CA. 2178 mapped tables in the affected jurisdiction, 35 cuisines on the page.
Those city links are not decoration. When a rule changes what a kitchen can serve or what it has to charge, that city page shows the change sitting right next to what people are already paying there. What happens next
The thing to watch is whether it moves off introduced. Bills that clear their next step fast tend to keep clearing steps. Bills that sit in the same spot for a full month usually sit there until the session runs out and everyone pretends it never happened.
We re-run this forecast every time the record moves, and we keep every old number. If we said 24 percent in March and 71 percent in May, both stay on the page, and so does what actually happened. Keeping score only counts if you cannot quietly delete the misses.
This is built on the public record from Health and Human Services Department. Session on file, 2025.